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Is Russia Capable of Becoming 1.5 times More Prosperous in 7 years?


RUSSIA -- Women beg for money in front of an Orthodox church as it snows in Moscow, January 30, 2018
RUSSIA -- Women beg for money in front of an Orthodox church as it snows in Moscow, January 30, 2018
Vladimir Putin

Vladimir Putin

President of the Russian Federation

Russia must firmly assert itself among the five largest global economies, and its per-capita GDP must increase by 50 percent by the middle of the next decade. This is a very difficult task. I am confident that we are ready to accomplish it.

Misleading
If we consider the purchasing power parity (PPP), Russia would have to reach the level [of economic development] of today’s Japan or France.

In the global rating of all countries whose economies are analyzed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Russia, with a GDP of $10.3 thousand per capita, scores near the bottom in purchasing power parity.

It is eight to 10 times less that the leading world countries and 2 to 5 times less than European countries overall.

The estimates are based on the assessment of the GDP in U.S. dollar converted from the local currencies by the current exchange rate.

Graph Economic Prosperity by Country by GDP IMF
Graph Economic Prosperity by Country by GDP IMF

Graph Economic Prosperity by Country by GDP IMF
Graph Economic Prosperity by Country by GDP IMF

Increasing the current indexes by 1.5 times means that by 2025, Russia will have to reach today’s level [of economic development] of Chile or Latvia.

There is another way of measuring the GDP, by the parity purchasing power (PPC) of the national currencies (in other words, by price comparison of the same goods in different countries). In this case Russia in 2017 rated 51st by the IMF.

Increasing the PPC by 1.5 times in the next 7 years, if achieved, would make Russia equivalent to Japan, France, the United Kingdom or South Korea today.

Graph Economic Prosperity by Country by PPP IMF
Graph Economic Prosperity by Country by PPP IMF

Graph Economic Prosperity by Country by PPP IMF
Graph Economic Prosperity by Country by PPP IMF

However, if the total GDP is estimated by the PPC, then the group of leaders, according to the same measures by the IMF, looks different.

As early as 2014, China advanced, according to this measure, with the U.S. topping the chart and Russia ranked 6th.

Top 15 World Countries by the GDP Share
Top 15 World Countries by the GDP Share

But, whichever of the two “five largest economies” was meant by the report, the conversation is about the need to significantly speed up the pace of economic growth in Russia.

“We need an economy with rates of growth higher than the global rates,” said Putin. Today those rates are 2.5 times lower than the global rates.

Top 15 Countries by GDP Share
Top 15 Countries by GDP Share

20 Years of Economic Growth of Russia and Globally in % (in comparison to previous years)
20 Years of Economic Growth of Russia and Globally in % (in comparison to previous years)

From Factograph

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